Monday, May 18, 2020

期權保倉策略

期權保倉策略

話說, 上星期SP 283接了SPY 後
同一時間做了SC 287 & LP 270, 5月18到期
兩者權金相若
這樣做, 是避免SPY 大跌, 因為接貨後一天, SPY 再跌到279
不過, 即等同同時鎖定了利潤
是對大巿不敢樂觀既做法

策略是這樣的,
SC 287 & LP 270, 5月18到期

CASE 1: 若SPY 到5月18比270 更低, 如265
這時候,
SC 的權金可以淨袋
LP 的權金會升到超過5蚊 (270-265 + 時間值)
SPY 的股價蝕了18 (283-265)
這樣的話, 一來一回, 蝕的錢就變得有限, 因為只要SPY 跌, LP 的權金會跟著升,
鎖定的蝕錢的總金額

CASE 2: 若SPY 到5月18, 在270 和287 之間
SC 的權金淨袋
LP 的權金, 正常變癈紙
SPY 的股價沒有大跌, 也沒有升, 只有帳面有限的升跌

CASE 3: 若SPY 到5月18升穿287, 如現在293
SC 的權金會升, (大約是當時股價 - 287 + 時間值, 現價約8元)
LP 的權金會跌到非常低
SPY 的股價升到293, 帳面升左10, 不過因為有SC 的關係,
如果賣出SC, 要貼8元, 計埋之前權金都唔抵
所以我會由得SC 在287 出貨
只賺了中間差價4元 (287 - 283)

按我這個做法
在跌巿時可以確保不會輸大錢
但升巿時, 就變相賺少左

要不要這樣做,
主要睇對後巿看法

4月尾接過一次284
上星期接過一次283,
似乎暫時SPY 每次上到29X 都會回一回
所以明天若SPY 出了貨 (正常都會出貨架啦)
再開SPY 都要小心一點

若SPY 跌就要先平倉, 再開遠一點, 平一點
雖然SPY 接貨都不是大問題
不過留CASH 做SP 感覺爽快一點






18 comments:

  1. 師姐, 有沒有買企業債券, 有事需要給你請教.
    我上年尾高追了卡隆石油的企業債券, 都是高位追了, 現這公司有TENDER, 可以轉換去長年期的新債, 資料如下.

    1) CPE 6 1/4 04/15/23 (ISIN:US144577AH67)
    2) CPE 6 1/8, 10/01/24 (ISIN:US13123XAT90)
    3) CPE 8 1/4. 07/15/25 (ISIN:US144577AJ24)

    我轉換價是按PA35, 想了解一下如果轉換了新債, 新價到期收回價是否會按回PA100 收回? 謝謝


    The terms of the offer are as follows (subject to proration):

    Option 1 - Take no action

    Option 2 - QIB Only: Tender notes for exchange: 350 P.A. New 8% Second Lien Secured Notes due 2025 + 50 P.A. Early Tender Premium + Accrued Interest per 1,000 principal amount tendered and accepted

    Option 3 - Non-US Only: Tender notes for exchange: 350 P.A. New 8% Second Lien Secured Notes due 2025 + 50 P.A. Early Tender Premium + Accrued Interest per 1,000 principal amount tendered and accepted

    Please note the Early Tender Premium will only be payable to holders who validly tender their notes prior to the Early Tender Deadline, unless extended.

    In addition to the tender offer, the company is soliciting consents from holders to certain proposed amendments to the indenture under which the notes were issued, to eliminate substantially all of the restrictive covenants and certain of the default provisions. Holders may not deliver consents without tendering their notes to the offer and may not tender without delivering consent.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. http://cbonds.com/emissions/issue/326065 <-- BOND 資料
      根據呢個網頁既資料, 呢隻BOND 票面都係100美金, 一年派2次, 年息8.25%

      所以如果你KEEP 住呢隻債到期, 而公司又唔執, 係會用100 贖回的

      Delete
    2. 師姐,轉換新債那只不是你提供網址那只,新債是年息8%, 所以我怕換了新債後,等到到期時只是按PA350回收, 而不是PA1000 收回, 不知道是否有此可能.

      The terms of the offer are as follows (subject to proration):

      Option 1 - Take no action

      Option 2 - QIB Only: Tender notes for exchange: 350 P.A. New 8% Second Lien Secured Notes due 2025 + 50 P.A. Early Tender Premium + Accrued Interest per 1,000 principal amount tendered and accepted

      Option 3 - Non-US Only: Tender notes for exchange: 350 P.A. New 8% Second Lien Secured Notes due 2025 + 50 P.A. Early Tender Premium + Accrued Interest per 1,000 principal amount tendered and accepted

      Please note the Early Tender Premium will only be payable to holders who validly tender their notes prior to the Early Tender Deadline, unless extended.

      In addition to the tender offer, the company is soliciting consents from holders to certain proposed amendments to the indenture under which the notes were issued, to eliminate substantially all of the restrictive covenants and certain of the default provisions. Holders may not deliver consents without tendering their notes to the offer and may not tender without delivering consent.

      Minimum Tender Requirement: 2,000 principal amount and in multiples of 1,000 thereafter, holders who tender less than all of their notes must continue to hold the minimum authorized denomination of 2,000.

      Proration: Notes tendered will be accepted according to levels of priority. The priority level for this issue is 3 out of 4.

      The Company will not accept any tender of old notes that would result in the issuance of less than 2,000 principal amount of new notes. The new notes will be rounded down to the nearest integral multiple of 1,000 principal amount and no cash will be paid in lieu of notes not received as a result of rounding.

      Delete
    3. IB 有提供這個債券的編號, 或債券的詳細資料嗎?
      因為我上網SEARCH 唔到你這個8% 的債券, 如果有債券CODE 或IPO 資料就最清楚

      如果只根據你呢段文字,
      佢寫住Tender Requirement 係2000, 要係1000 既倍數, 呢個Amount 同普通既100 蚊債券係一樣既

      Delete
    4. 因為8% 是一只新債, 應該是還沒有上市的,只是把現有的舊債轉為新債,主要是吾知換左新債後,當到期後是否按回正常PA1000收回還是只是按PA350 收回,

      https://www.callon.com/investors/news-events/press-releases/detail/311/callon-petroleum-company-announces-commencement-of-exchange

      Delete
  2. 師姐,問你一下
    自學期權中,睇完「期權現金流」

    想問仲有什麼書值得研究?
    (偏向少炒賣)

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. 我有睇期權速獲利和動態期權快狠準, 不過我覺得唔係話好有用, 只係買左就睇晒佢

      其實我覺得你是旦睇一本, 學左基本原理, 再落場試下就OK
      因為只要知基本運作, 之後唔同策略都係用基本野加唔同變化

      LC 看升
      SC 不升穿
      LP 看跌
      SP 不跌穿

      現在美股升下又跌下, 做下SP 買佢唔大跌, 又唔駛坐貨就算
      因為現階段仲係擔心熊未完, 唔想坐太多貨

      不過期權本來就係賭架喎, 唔係賭佢升就係賭佢跌, 所以都有炒賣成份

      Delete
    2. Youtube有個叫kelvin No 真期權教室,可以參考下

      Delete
    3. 我都系睇KELVIN 講完就開始試期權.但我保守好多吾會用槓桿,同埋吾敢做太多

      Delete
    4. Kano, 我唔太建議睇期權現金流個作者﹗佢本書係好易明﹗但亦因為佢害到D學生投資損手幾千萬。你可以睇金曹既期權制勝,同埋Henry Sir既期權對沖王道,我覺得要學好心態比其他揾錢方式更好

      Delete
    5. 損手幾千萬咁誇張??
      佢D 學生咁有錢既

      Delete
    6. 看了一下

      第一點,槓桿問題- 最少1.7 ,最高3
      其實尼一定有問題,因為1.7喺嗰幾個數字,你唔可以長期維持1.7數字
      不爆倉就偷笑了

      第二點,投資物
      澳洲同埋加拿大唔講,我冇研究講吓少少關於新星加坡美國
      AW9U T82U 係tier 2-3 級別
      長遠持有係冇益,因為佢哋唔係最頂級嘅
      甚至佢哋係得1.5 級別
      唔值得長期持有,佢各自有唔同風險,特別係AW9u

      相反N2iu 靚仔好多,值得長期持有

      第三點關於英國房托
      英國reit 更加多政治風險和電商沖擊
      唔好亂咁買,如果你買再買最靚嘅,並且有心理準備持有至少兩三年。

      第四,時機
      使用Short put 來做要係情況穩定,唔可以見跌市狂做,跌咗要有接貨準備
      (極高風險行為)
      同做好對沖,


      第五關於工具
      仲有用博反彈吸回報本身就係 高風險行為
      因為用錯工具🧰

      還有買 US EPR 公司不用擔心,但基本面受到傷害
      要重回正軌要非常長時間,又一高風險操作
      你可以有更好工具

      第六點其他事項
      Btw , 見你wechat 玩OEF
      小心勿貪,又係一道陷阱
      極高風險

      第七組合嘅篩選
      如果你只係打算息,唔可以只靠單一產品,呢個關於你風險同落注的問題

      Delete
    7. 等陣,我明明係求教㗎嘛
      點解又答人問題㗎

      有無一個重視心法的功課?

      Delete
    8. 你呢段COMMENTS 係想回應KEVIN 那段片?? 我都未有時間睇
      有高風險野, 仲要槓桿去到3太誇張了吧

      我現在倉有一半係CASH, 用來玩期權, 所以就算接貨都係用CASH 接,
      主要係現在唔敢滿倉, 又擔心升巿錯過左

      Delete
    9. I mean 佢哋話 「期權先生」的指控
      輸咗錢入哂肉

      似乎[期權先生」都係一齊輸入肉
      不過佢有short 恐懼指數,應該唔會輸太多

      Kelvin No 操作多,
      我份人比較理論
      我要的是心法為主
      想配合返我套打法

      Delete
    10. 期權先生都係有實力的人
      有名有姓

      我覺得好奇怪

      Delete
  3. 最緊要係知道最worse case係會点。expected profit通常係最吸引人,從而去做期權,但最重要係知道maximum loss係点樣,自己可否承受到。期權當中既possibilities 我覺得係不可以盡信

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. 做期權真係要SET 好止蝕位, 權金升/跌到某一個位一定要止蝕,
      唔可以比損失再擴大

      Delete